{
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "licenseName": "CC BY 4.0",
  "credit": "The Tennis Desk, https://thetennisdesk.com/research/where-do-you-have-to-finish-to-get-bumped",
  "provenance": {
    "statements": {
      "derived": {
        "from": "docs/research/records/where-do-you-have-to-finish-to-get-bumped.json — each statement's own SQL, executed read-only against production by scripts/measure-research-record.ts, which refuses to write this file if any n, hits or value disagrees with the record"
      }
    }
  },
  "slug": "where-do-you-have-to-finish-to-get-bumped",
  "question": "Does where a player finishes inside their NTRP range predict whether they move up or down the next year?",
  "verdict": "publishable",
  "measuredOn": "2026-10-22",
  "statements": {
    "computerrated-over-up": {
      "n": 1301,
      "hits": 421,
      "value": 32.4,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons that finished above the top of their NTRP range, 32.4 in a hundred moved up a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "computerrated-top-up": {
      "n": 1964,
      "hits": 60,
      "value": 3.1,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons that finished in the top half of their NTRP range, 3.1 in a hundred moved up a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "computerrated-top-down": {
      "n": 1964,
      "hits": 4,
      "value": 0.2,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons that finished in the top half of their NTRP range, 0.2 in a hundred moved down a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "computerrated-bottom-down": {
      "n": 1075,
      "hits": 52,
      "value": 4.8,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons that finished in the bottom half of their NTRP range, 4.8 in a hundred moved down a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "computerrated-under-down": {
      "n": 201,
      "hits": 55,
      "value": 27.4,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons that finished below the bottom of their NTRP range, 27.4 in a hundred moved down a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "selfrated-over-up": {
      "n": 288,
      "hits": 103,
      "value": 35.8,
      "claim": "Of self-rated player-seasons that finished above the top of their NTRP range, 35.8 in a hundred moved up a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "selfrated-top-up": {
      "n": 211,
      "hits": 15,
      "value": 7.1,
      "claim": "Of self-rated player-seasons that finished in the top half of their NTRP range, 7.1 in a hundred moved up a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "selfrated-top-down": {
      "n": 211,
      "hits": 5,
      "value": 2.4,
      "claim": "Of self-rated player-seasons that finished in the top half of their NTRP range, 2.4 in a hundred moved down a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "selfrated-bottom-down": {
      "n": 159,
      "hits": 27,
      "value": 17,
      "claim": "Of self-rated player-seasons that finished in the bottom half of their NTRP range, 17.0 in a hundred moved down a level the following year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "up-from-inside-the-range": {
      "n": 605,
      "hits": 81,
      "value": 13.4,
      "claim": "Of every player-season that moved up a level, 13.4 in a hundred finished at or below the top of their range: they went up without ever passing it.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "down-from-inside-the-range": {
      "n": 185,
      "hits": 90,
      "value": 48.6,
      "claim": "Of every player-season that moved down a level, 48.6 in a hundred finished at or above the bottom of their range. The figure is the claim; the piece does not argue from which side of 50 it falls on, because it read 54.1 on 2026-09-15, 43.7 on 2026-09-23, 56.8 on 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-06, and 48.6 on 2026-10-22.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "selfrated-under-floor-population": {
      "n": 87,
      "hits": null,
      "value": 87,
      "claim": "87 self-rated player-seasons finished below the bottom of their range. The cell was WITHHELD at 42 rows on 2026-09-15, under this record's 50-row floor. It cleared the floor at 85 on 2026-09-25, and its move-down rate is published as step 0 of selfrated-step-down-rate: 46.0 in a hundred on 2026-10-22.",
      "unit": "player-seasons"
    },
    "shape-30-computer": {
      "n": 774,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        35,
        21,
        33,
        26,
        37,
        38,
        51,
        60,
        62,
        56,
        54,
        301
      ],
      "claim": "Where computer-rated 3.0 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-30-computer-up": {
      "n": 774,
      "hits": 181,
      "value": 23.4,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-30-computer-down": {
      "n": 774,
      "hits": 4,
      "value": 0.5,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "shape-30-self": {
      "n": 226,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        29,
        5,
        12,
        6,
        13,
        8,
        12,
        16,
        9,
        11,
        12,
        93
      ],
      "claim": "Where self-rated 3.0 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-30-self-up": {
      "n": 226,
      "hits": 44,
      "value": 19.5,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-30-self-down": {
      "n": 226,
      "hits": 12,
      "value": 5.3,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "shape-35-computer": {
      "n": 1632,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        74,
        32,
        73,
        73,
        103,
        117,
        148,
        155,
        164,
        138,
        118,
        437
      ],
      "claim": "Where computer-rated 3.5 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-35-computer-up": {
      "n": 1632,
      "hits": 166,
      "value": 10.2,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-35-computer-down": {
      "n": 1632,
      "hits": 36,
      "value": 2.2,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "shape-35-self": {
      "n": 245,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        31,
        10,
        10,
        16,
        7,
        11,
        13,
        23,
        10,
        9,
        13,
        92
      ],
      "claim": "Where self-rated 3.5 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-35-self-up": {
      "n": 245,
      "hits": 37,
      "value": 15.1,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-35-self-down": {
      "n": 245,
      "hits": 28,
      "value": 11.4,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "shape-40-computer": {
      "n": 1373,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        56,
        39,
        46,
        58,
        81,
        95,
        120,
        157,
        121,
        113,
        109,
        378
      ],
      "claim": "Where computer-rated 4.0 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-40-computer-up": {
      "n": 1373,
      "hits": 83,
      "value": 6,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-40-computer-down": {
      "n": 1373,
      "hits": 45,
      "value": 3.3,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "shape-40-self": {
      "n": 152,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        15,
        4,
        6,
        8,
        10,
        13,
        6,
        13,
        8,
        7,
        8,
        54
      ],
      "claim": "Where self-rated 4.0 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-40-self-up": {
      "n": 152,
      "hits": 6,
      "value": 3.9,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-40-self-down": {
      "n": 152,
      "hits": 21,
      "value": 13.8,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.0 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "shape-45-computer": {
      "n": 616,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        27,
        17,
        23,
        35,
        51,
        51,
        50,
        65,
        55,
        57,
        42,
        143
      ],
      "claim": "Where computer-rated 4.5 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-45-computer-up": {
      "n": 616,
      "hits": 23,
      "value": 3.7,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-45-computer-down": {
      "n": 616,
      "hits": 16,
      "value": 2.6,
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "shape-45-self": {
      "n": 68,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        10,
        2,
        4,
        2,
        4,
        4,
        5,
        4,
        3,
        6,
        3,
        21
      ],
      "claim": "Where self-rated 4.5 player-seasons finished, counted in twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "band-45-self-up": {
      "n": 68,
      "hits": 7,
      "value": 10.3,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a higher rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "band-45-self-down": {
      "n": 68,
      "hits": 10,
      "value": 14.7,
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.5 player-seasons, this many in a hundred held a lower rating the next year.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "inside-the-span": {
      "n": 5286,
      "hits": 3409,
      "value": 64.5,
      "claim": "Of every player-season measured, this many in a hundred finished INSIDE the span their published rating names, rather than above or below it. A rating names a range whose top is the rating itself: a 4.0 names everything above 3.50 up to and including 4.00.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "above-beats-high-inside": {
      "n": 3265,
      "hits": null,
      "value": 10.6,
      "claim": "A computer-rated player who finished ABOVE their span moved up this many times for each one who finished high inside it and moved up. A ratio of two rates, measured here rather than divided on the page.",
      "unit": "times"
    },
    "selfrated-falls-further": {
      "n": 1234,
      "hits": null,
      "value": 3.5,
      "claim": "From the same position low inside the span, a self-rated player moved down this many times for each computer-rated player who did. A ratio of two rates, measured here rather than divided on the page.",
      "unit": "times"
    },
    "computerrated-step-population": {
      "n": 4541,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        201,
        114,
        178,
        199,
        276,
        308,
        370,
        446,
        411,
        389,
        348,
        1301
      ],
      "claim": "How many computer-rated player-seasons finished at each step. Twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten of 0.05 across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "computerrated-step-up-rate": {
      "n": 4541,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        1.1,
        3.4,
        3.3,
        7.5,
        32.4
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons at each step, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. Twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten of 0.05 across it, one above it. A step under fifty seasons or under five moves is NULL here: the publication floor is applied in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator into the published data at all.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "computerrated-step-down-rate": {
      "n": 4541,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        27.4,
        13.2,
        9,
        3,
        4,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons at each step, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. Twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten of 0.05 across it, one above it. A step under fifty seasons or under five moves is NULL here: the publication floor is applied in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator into the published data at all.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "selfrated-step-population": {
      "n": 745,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        87,
        21,
        33,
        33,
        35,
        37,
        37,
        58,
        31,
        45,
        40,
        288
      ],
      "claim": "How many self-rated player-seasons finished at each step. Twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten of 0.05 across it, one above it.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per step"
    },
    "selfrated-step-up-rate": {
      "n": 745,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        35.8
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated player-seasons at each step, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. Twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten of 0.05 across it, one above it. A step under fifty seasons or under five moves is NULL here: the publication floor is applied in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator into the published data at all.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "selfrated-step-down-rate": {
      "n": 745,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        46,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated player-seasons at each step, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. Twelve steps: one below the span the rating names, ten of 0.05 across it, one above it. A step under fifty seasons or under five moves is NULL here: the publication floor is applied in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator into the published data at all.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-30-computer-population": {
      "n": 774,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        35,
        155,
        283,
        301
      ],
      "claim": "How many computer-rated 3.0 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-30-computer-up": {
      "n": 774,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        7.8,
        52.5
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-30-computer-down": {
      "n": 774,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-30-self-population": {
      "n": 226,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        29,
        44,
        60,
        93
      ],
      "claim": "How many self-rated 3.0 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-30-self-up": {
      "n": 226,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        10,
        37.6
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-30-self-down": {
      "n": 226,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-35-computer-population": {
      "n": 1632,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        74,
        398,
        723,
        437
      ],
      "claim": "How many computer-rated 3.5 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-35-computer-up": {
      "n": 1632,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        2.9,
        32.7
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-35-computer-down": {
      "n": 1632,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        27,
        3.8,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 3.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-35-self-population": {
      "n": 245,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        31,
        54,
        68,
        92
      ],
      "claim": "How many self-rated 3.5 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-35-self-up": {
      "n": 245,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        38
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-35-self-down": {
      "n": 245,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        11.1,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 3.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-40-computer-population": {
      "n": 1373,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        56,
        319,
        620,
        378
      ],
      "claim": "How many computer-rated 4.0 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-40-computer-up": {
      "n": 1373,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        1,
        20.4
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-40-computer-down": {
      "n": 1373,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        41.1,
        6.3,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-40-self-population": {
      "n": 152,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        15,
        41,
        42,
        54
      ],
      "claim": "How many self-rated 4.0 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-40-self-up": {
      "n": 152,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        11.1
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-40-self-down": {
      "n": 152,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.0 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-45-computer-population": {
      "n": 616,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        27,
        177,
        269,
        143
      ],
      "claim": "How many computer-rated 4.5 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-45-computer-up": {
      "n": 616,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        15.4
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-45-computer-down": {
      "n": 616,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        5.6,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated 4.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-45-self-population": {
      "n": 68,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        10,
        16,
        21,
        21
      ],
      "claim": "How many self-rated 4.5 player-seasons finished at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per position"
    },
    "curve-45-self-up": {
      "n": 68,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "curve-45-self-down": {
      "n": 68,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated 4.5 player-seasons at each of four positions: below the range, its lower half, its upper half, and above the range, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. A position under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "tenths-population": {
      "n": 4541,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        968,
        678,
        857,
        737,
        575,
        415,
        204,
        75,
        32
      ],
      "claim": "How many computer-rated player-seasons finished at each tenth. nine steps of a tenth of a point each, measured against the TOP of the range the rating names: more than 0.30 below it, then each tenth from 0.30 below to 0.40 above, then 0.40 above and beyond.",
      "unit": "player-seasons per tenth"
    },
    "tenths-up": {
      "n": 4541,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        2.2,
        5.3,
        17,
        30.1,
        53.9,
        76,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons at each tenth, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year. nine steps of a tenth of a point each, measured against the TOP of the range the rating names: more than 0.30 below it, then each tenth from 0.30 below to 0.40 above, then 0.40 above and beyond. A tenth under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "tenths-down": {
      "n": 4541,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        10.6,
        0.9,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of computer-rated player-seasons at each tenth, how many in a hundred held a LOWER rating the next year. nine steps of a tenth of a point each, measured against the TOP of the range the rating names: more than 0.30 below it, then each tenth from 0.30 below to 0.40 above, then 0.40 above and beyond. A tenth under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL, so a withheld cell carries no numerator.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "tenths-published-per-rating": {
      "n": 4541,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        0,
        5,
        5,
        3,
        1,
        0
      ],
      "claim": "At a tenth of a point, how many of the nine steps publish a move-up rate for ONE computer-rated rating on its own, for 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5 and 5.0: 0, 5, 5, 3, 1 and 0. No rating publishes at every step, which is why the curve is pooled across ratings. A step publishes only at fifty seasons and five moves. Nine steps of a tenth of a point each, measured against the TOP of the range the rating names: more than 0.30 below it, then each tenth from 0.30 below to 0.40 above, then 0.40 above and beyond.",
      "unit": "published steps per rating, of nine"
    },
    "selfrated-tenths-up": {
      "n": 745,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        12.9,
        13.5,
        29.1,
        43.1,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "claim": "Of self-rated player-seasons at each tenth, how many in a hundred held a HIGHER rating the next year: withheld at the first three steps, then 12.9, 13.5, 29.1 and 43.1, then withheld at the last two steps. Nine steps of a tenth of a point each, measured against the TOP of the range the rating names: more than 0.30 below it, then each tenth from 0.30 below to 0.40 above, then 0.40 above and beyond. A tenth under fifty seasons or five moves is NULL: the publication floor is in this SQL. It is not drawn on the page: it publishes at four of the nine steps, and not at the two furthest past the top of the range. (Until 2026-10-06 it also did not climb step by step; on 2026-10-22 the four published steps do climb.)",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    }
  }
}