{
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "licenseName": "CC BY 4.0",
  "credit": "The Tennis Desk, https://thetennisdesk.com/research/does-winning-move-you-up-a-level",
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-30T08:06:01.995Z",
  "source": {
    "datasetId": "permissioned-marin-history-2022-2026",
    "fixtureGeneratedAt": "2026-07-06T13:14:15.649Z",
    "scope": {
      "kind": "seeded-region",
      "label": "Seeded regional coverage fixture",
      "region": "Marin",
      "section": "USTA NorCal",
      "seedBasis": "Organizations discovered from the current active-season graph; code paths are generic for other regions/sections."
    }
  },
  "method": {
    "leagues": "Every Adult Division age group (18, 40, 55, 65, 70 & Over) per Reg 1.04D(5). Combo excluded — absent from the USTA League Regulations. Mixed excluded except for players who played the Mixed Division exclusively that season, per Reg 1.04F(1)b.",
    "record": "roster wins + losses summed across all of a player's teams that season; walkovers excluded",
    "transitions": "consecutive seasons only (toYear === fromYear + 1)",
    "minMatches": 15,
    "outcome": "'moved up' = the player's NTRP level rose year over year; cannot distinguish an earned bump from a self-rate correction or appeal",
    "bands": "left-closed; exactly 75.0% counts as 75%+"
  },
  "pooled": {
    "years": [
      2022,
      2023,
      2024,
      2025
    ],
    "cohort": 795,
    "movedUp": 130,
    "bands": [
      {
        "label": "under 50%",
        "n": 280,
        "bumped": 13,
        "rate": 0.04642857142857143
      },
      {
        "label": "50–65%",
        "n": 256,
        "bumped": 36,
        "rate": 0.140625
      },
      {
        "label": "65–75%",
        "n": 128,
        "bumped": 32,
        "rate": 0.25
      },
      {
        "label": "75%+",
        "n": 131,
        "bumped": 49,
        "rate": 0.37404580152671757
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent": {
    "year": 2025,
    "cohort": 246,
    "movedUp": 45,
    "movedDown": 1,
    "bands": [
      {
        "label": "under 50%",
        "n": 87,
        "bumped": 5,
        "rate": 0.05747126436781609
      },
      {
        "label": "50–65%",
        "n": 81,
        "bumped": 14,
        "rate": 0.1728395061728395
      },
      {
        "label": "65–75%",
        "n": 43,
        "bumped": 11,
        "rate": 0.2558139534883721
      },
      {
        "label": "75%+",
        "n": 35,
        "bumped": 15,
        "rate": 0.42857142857142855
      }
    ]
  },
  "followUp": {
    "players": 105,
    "everMovedUp": 56
  },
  "levels": {
    "below": {
      "n": 67,
      "bumped": 37
    },
    "atOrAbove": {
      "n": 64,
      "bumped": 12
    }
  },
  "pooledPlayers": 478,
  "owner": {
    "seasons": [
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "wins": 14,
        "losses": 3,
        "label": "stay",
        "from": "3.5s",
        "to": "3.5C"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "wins": 20,
        "losses": 5,
        "label": "bump-up",
        "from": "3.5C",
        "to": "4.0C"
      }
    ]
  }
}