{
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "licenseName": "CC BY 4.0",
  "credit": "The Tennis Desk, https://thetennisdesk.com/research/does-the-home-team-really-win-more",
  "provenance": {
    "statements": {
      "derived": {
        "from": "docs/research/records/home-advantage.json — each statement's own SQL, executed read-only against production by scripts/measure-research-record.ts, which refuses to write this file if any n, hits or value disagrees with the record"
      }
    }
  },
  "slug": "does-the-home-team-really-win-more",
  "question": "Does the home team really win more?",
  "verdict": "publishable",
  "measuredOn": "2026-10-06",
  "statements": {
    "headline": {
      "n": 15721,
      "hits": 8759,
      "value": 55.72,
      "claim": "The home team wins 55.72 out of every hundred decided team matches.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "by-season": {
      "n": 15721,
      "hits": 8759,
      "value": [
        56.11,
        55.71,
        55.38,
        55.42,
        56.03
      ],
      "claim": "It holds every season: 56.11, 55.71, 55.38, 55.42, 56.03 for 2022 through 2026.",
      "unit": "per hundred, by season"
    },
    "fully-fielded": {
      "n": 13785,
      "hits": 7527,
      "value": 54.6,
      "claim": "On team matches where neither side left a line unfielded, the home team wins 54.60 out of a hundred.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "with-a-default": {
      "n": 1936,
      "hits": 1232,
      "value": 63.64,
      "claim": "On team matches where a line went unfielded, the home team wins 63.64 out of a hundred.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "unfielded-lines": {
      "n": 2353,
      "hits": 1542,
      "value": 65.53,
      "claim": "Of the 2353 lines where one side named no players, the home side won 65.53 out of a hundred: the team that fails to field a line is usually the visitor.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "sign-test": {
      "n": 904,
      "hits": 530,
      "value": 58.63,
      "claim": "Among 904 pairs of teams who played each other once at each venue in a season, fully fielded both times, and split the two matches, the home side took 530 and the road side 374 — 58.63 out of a hundred.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "tied": {
      "n": 251,
      "hits": 251,
      "value": 251,
      "claim": "251 team matches ended level and are excluded, because a tie has no winner.",
      "unit": "matches"
    },
    "margin-not-tennis-points": {
      "n": 15721,
      "hits": null,
      "value": 1.11,
      "claim": "Removing the matches where a side left a line unfielded moves the home rate down by this many POINTS. A difference between two rates is points (index rule 4), measured here rather than subtracted on the page.",
      "unit": "points"
    },
    "share-of-margin-not-tennis": {
      "n": 15721,
      "hits": null,
      "value": 19,
      "claim": "Of the home team's whole margin over an even split, this many in a hundred come from lineups rather than from tennis.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    }
  }
}