{
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "licenseName": "CC BY 4.0",
  "credit": "The Tennis Desk, https://thetennisdesk.com/research/does-sectionals-decide-who-gets-bumped",
  "provenance": {
    "statements": {
      "derived": {
        "from": "docs/research/records/sectionals.json — each statement's own SQL, executed read-only against production by scripts/measure-research-record.ts, which refuses to write this file if any n, hits or value disagrees with the record"
      }
    }
  },
  "slug": "does-sectionals-decide-who-gets-bumped",
  "question": "Does winning at sectionals decide who gets bumped?",
  "verdict": "publishable",
  "measuredOn": "2026-10-06",
  "statements": {
    "qualified-won": {
      "n": 1710,
      "hits": 365,
      "value": 21.3,
      "claim": "Among players who reached sectionals, those who won at least one line there are bumped up 21.3 times in a hundred.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "qualified-lost": {
      "n": 750,
      "hits": 45,
      "value": 6,
      "claim": "Players who reached sectionals and won no line there are bumped up 6.0 times in a hundred.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "never-went": {
      "n": 4902,
      "hits": 324,
      "value": 6.6,
      "claim": "Players who never reached sectionals are bumped up 6.6 times in a hundred — the same as those who went and lost.",
      "unit": "per hundred"
    },
    "winners-by-level": {
      "n": 1710,
      "hits": 365,
      "value": [
        38.9,
        21.4,
        14,
        11
      ],
      "claim": "The winners' rate by the Desk level they carried into the season: 38.9, 21.4, 14.0, 11.0 for under 3.25, 3.25 to 3.75, 3.75 to 4.25 and 4.25 and up.",
      "unit": "per hundred, by Desk band"
    },
    "losers-by-level": {
      "n": 750,
      "hits": 45,
      "value": [
        13.6,
        4.8,
        2.3,
        3.8
      ],
      "claim": "The same four bands for players who reached sectionals and lost: 13.6, 4.8, 2.3, 3.8.",
      "unit": "per hundred, by Desk band"
    },
    "winners-by-season": {
      "n": 1710,
      "hits": 365,
      "value": [
        19.3,
        18.3,
        25,
        21.6
      ],
      "claim": "The winners' rate by season boundary: 19.3, 18.3, 25.0, 21.6 for 2022 through 2025.",
      "unit": "per hundred, by season"
    },
    "winners-band-sizes": {
      "n": 1710,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        396,
        504,
        463,
        347
      ],
      "claim": "How many winners sit in each Desk band: 396, 504, 463, 347.",
      "unit": "player-seasons, by Desk band"
    },
    "losers-band-sizes": {
      "n": 750,
      "hits": null,
      "value": [
        177,
        252,
        217,
        104
      ],
      "claim": "And how many who went and lost: 177, 252, 217, 104.",
      "unit": "player-seasons, by Desk band"
    },
    "winners-beat-losers": {
      "n": 2460,
      "hits": null,
      "value": 3.6,
      "claim": "A player who won a line at sectionals moved up this many times for each qualifier who won none and moved up. A ratio of two rates, measured here rather than divided on the page.",
      "unit": "times"
    },
    "qualified-total": {
      "n": 2460,
      "hits": null,
      "value": 2460,
      "claim": "Player-seasons that reached sectionals at all, won or not. It is the denominator the inside-the-qualifiers comparison is drawn over.",
      "unit": "player-seasons"
    }
  }
}